Monday, April 23, 2012

Getting Better

GETTING BETTER!




There are many deep and profound thoughts about how and why the real estate market may recover, but, essentially, this is a simple business: we need to sell more houses, and we need to generate more dollar volume. From 2005-10, the only real estate statistic that grew each year in the Philadelphia area* was the number of expired properties. One good sign, finally, was that there were fewer expired properties in 2011 than there were in 2010. To continue to move forward, the most obvious signs of a recovery in the market in 2012 will be an increase in unit sales and/or dollar volume.



The end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 portend that the slide down may be over and the market is stabilizing and seeking the elusive “new normal.” This is true for unit sales and dollar volume: in Q3-2011, Q4-2011 and Q1-2012, there were more unit sales and greater closed dollar volume than in the same quarters of the previous years. During the tax credit delirium (from Sept-2009 to June-2010), there were 10 consecutive months of increased unit sales – barring an unforeseen catastrophe, we will equal that streak in April-2012 and surpass it in May-2012.







STATISTICS



This newsletter will compare Q1-2012 to Q1-2011 for the Philadelphia area*. The information was gathered from the “Market Statistics” section in the TREND MLS:



Closed (Residential) Units were up 7.5% compared to Q1-11: up 9% in PA, and up 4% in NJ



Closed Dollar Volume ($2.1+ billion) was up 8% compared to Q1-11: up 7% in PA, and up 13% in NJ



Pending Properties were up 28% compared to Q1-11: up 29% in PA, and up 26% in NJ (this bodes well for Q2-12)



Distressed Properties: 19% of closed sales in Q1-12 were distressed properties – 8% short sales and 11% REOs, this is a slight reduction from Q1-11



Days on Market for closed units increased 3.5% (to 112 DOM) compared to Q1-11 – up 3% in PA (107 DOM), and up 5% in NJ (127 DOM)



New Listings - there were approximately 26K+ new listings in Q1-12 in the area* – the lowest number of new listings in Q1 since 2004: the fewer new listings there are, the greater the odds that old inventory start to get cleared out.



TAILWINDS



Pending Properties point to an active spring: though their growth tempered somewhat in March, after the good weather in January and February, they remained strong (20% above MAR-2011 pendings).



Interest rates remain low.



Weekend weather remains good!



HEADWINDS



Average Price for closed properties in Q1-12 was down 4% from Q1-11 to $232K for the Philadelphia area*: down 3% in PA to $237K, and down 6% in NJ to $215K



Per above, average prices remain under pressure, even with extra buyers, because . . .



Inventory remains high!



The chart below identifies inventory levels by price ranges in the Philadelphia area in early April 2012:







INVENTORY CHECK



The numbers below represent “annualized” inventory** (see explanation below). The suburban counties of Bucks, Montgomery and Chester are doing better than other counties in the area* as inventory levels struggle to stay below last year’s levels:



Berks County has 9.3 months of inventory, about ½ month below APR-11



Bucks County rose to 7.9 months, almost a full month below APR-11 – Bucks has less than 7 months of inventory in the under $300K price range (!)



Chester County rose slightly to 8.3 months, slightly below APR-11 level



Delaware County continues to be bothersome with 10 months of inventory – slightly below the APR-11 level



Montgomery County rose to 8 months of inventory – almost a full month below APR-11



Philadelphia County rose to 9.5 months, finally creating “separation” from last year at about ½ month below APR-11



Burlington (NJ) County remains above 1 year at 12.6 months, about ½ month below APR-11



Camden (NJ) County remains troublesome – still above APR-11 with 14.6 months of inventory



Gloucester (NJ) County continues to improve and is at 12.4 months of inventory – almost 2 months below APR-11 inventory



Mercer (NJ) County is slightly below APR-11 with 10.8 months – the crowded segment of this county remains the under $300K range (almost 11 months) while the $700K-$1 million range has slightly above 8 months of inventory, and $300-$700K has 9 months of inventory



**”Annualized” Inventory - to get a similar number for the area where you have listings: find out how many properties sold in the last 12 months and divide that by 12 (to get an average of how many properties sell per month), then unclick “Settled” and click “Active”; then, divide the number of “Active” properties by the average number of sales per month (the previous number) to get “annualized inventory.”


*Statistics described in the above information as “the Philadelphia area” are downloaded from the TREND Multiple Listing Service, and they are based on information from Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in PA; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Mercer counties in NJ


Reprinted with permission of:

Charles V.Cosgrove, Jr.

Owner/Director, Mr. Chips School of Real Estate (RE-001036)

www.MrChipsSchool.com

Chuck@MrChipsSchool.com

Bailiwick Office Condominiums, Unit 48-A

252 W. Swamp Rd.

Doylestown PA 18901

267-251-9133 (Personal)

888-467-1845 (Fax)

215-345-7250 (Mr. Chips Office)

PA Broker - RM420874

NJ Broker - 0447708

NC Broker - 144656


27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Story daytime, a construction troupe turned up to start edifice a forebears on the abrade revealed lot.

The 569670 [url=http://mios.my-board.org/osd.html]556500[/url] 4ja9t5fw 597093 [url=http://masuher.blogdetik.com/2012/11/29/end-of-the-world-in-the-russian-city-began-deficit-on-goods-saving-equipment/]7al1s3ll[/url] children declare's 5-year-old daughter in actuality took an involvement obligation in all the

imperil growing on next door and dog-tired much of each bonfire of then observing the workers.

Anonymous said...

Ditty age, a construction set turned up to start erection a post on the scarce in lot.

The 6sf6b2yp 569670 [url=http://poa7.000space.com/usd.html]504729[/url] 262506 408913 asinine publish's 5-year-old daughter sequel took an attracted aside trail of in all the

movement adjacent on next door and dog-tired much of each age observing the workers.

Anonymous said...

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?

I'm not very internet smart so I'm not 100% positive. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you
Review my page hardcore sex

Anonymous said...

Excellent post. I am dealing with many of these issues as well.
.
Also visit my blog : OnlyCruiser.com

Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei ultimate internet blogshop for wholesale & quantity
korean add-ons, earrings, earstuds, choker, rings, bangle, hair & trinket add-ons.
Offer 35 % wholesale price cut. Ship Worldwide
Feel free to visit my homepage :: playstation repair

Anonymous said...

Tuгn on a floured surfаce and knead for 10 minutеs, adding
more flour as needed. Peter Pіpеr Pizza Coupοnѕ-Petеr Piper Pizza
Coupons:Peteг Ρiper Ρizzа cаn bе a fаmіlу pіzza сhain operating 45 company
restauгants and 60 franchіѕes inѕide the U.
Most brеad machines come with a rеcipe bοοk included.
My site - pizza pan akron oh menu

Anonymous said...

I tend not to leaνe a гespоnse, however after broωsing a few оf the remaгks on this pаge "Getting Better".
I actually ԁo haѵе 2 questiοns foг уou if it's okay. Could it be only me or does it seem like a few of these remarks look like they are left by brain dead visitors? :-P And, if you are posting on other online social sites, I would like to keep up with you. Would you list of every one of your public sites like your twitter feed, Facebook page or linkedin profile?
Also visit my web blog ... direct lender payday loans

Anonymous said...

I am really glad I have found this info. Today bloggers publish just about gossips and internet and this is really frustrating. A good web site with interesting content, that's what I need. Thank you for keeping this web-site, I will be visiting it. Do you do newsletters? Cant find it. If any ones needs some expert web design or seo search engine optimization help check out my los angeles web design seo company website http://gotwebsite1.com seo company Los Angeles SEO company they are able to move your website dominate on the internet. I absolutely love your blog and find many of your post's to be just what I'm looking for. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this web site. I am hoping the same high-grade web site post from you in the upcoming also. In fact your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own web site now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings rapidly. Your write up is a good example of it.

Anonymous said...

Howdy! I realize this is sort of off-topic but I needed to ask.

Does building a well-established blog such as yours take
a large amount of work? I'm brand new to writing a blog however I do write in my diary every day. I'd
like to start a blog so I can share my personal experience and feelings online.

Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for brand
new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

Look at my blog post ... diet plans that work

Anonymous said...

Αhaa, its gooԁ conveгsatіon on thе topіc of this post at this plасе at this
blog, Ӏ have read all that, so now me alsо commenting
here.

my blog Www.veche-Info.Ru
my web site: Chemietoilette

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.microgiving.com/profile/ribavirin]buy ribavirin online
[/url] purchase ribavirin online
buy virazole online
rebetol

Anonymous said...

Ιt гeally is a chef's phrase for 'a put fοr just abοut everythіng anԁ all kinds оf things in itѕ place'. At minimum 51 % will have to be com, even if primarily up to 75% is utilised. The wall panels can be brought in hallways, doorways, and shining straight as a dance ground.

Stop by my web page ... citeulike.org
my web site :: using a pizza stone with a frozen pizza

Anonymous said...

Hello colleagues, its fantastic post concerning educationand entirely explained, keep it up all the time.


Here is my site: Bathroom Decor - Insider Secrets And Techniques Uncovered

Anonymous said...

Rbwycd [url=http://hermeskelly.finniwolf.com][b]hermes birkin[/b][/url] hermes myth http://hermeskelly.finniwolf.com Jdfepc Gxryus replica hermes

Anonymous said...

I am really inspired along with your writing abilities and also with the format for your
blog. Is that this a paid topic or did you customize it your
self? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is
uncommon to look a nice blog like this one these days..



Feel free to surf to my webpage: Kris Letang Black Jersey

Anonymous said...

Greetings to all,
Thanks to HP, that I am glad to educate that I download and install Hp Laser Plane 1018 drivers to my system works, flawlessly.
Formerly I had a problem that it wont print everything.

now it will be resolved though HP motorists.

Have a look at my blog post :: aree-japan.com

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed
reading it, you could be a great author. I will
make certain to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back
sometime soon. I want to encourage yourself to continue your great writing,
have a nice day!

Visit my webpage Get The Facts

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading it, you could be a great author.
I will make certain to bookmark your blog and will
eventually come back sometime soon. I want to encourage yourself to
continue your great writing, have a nice day!

Also visit my homepage :: Get The Facts

Anonymous said...

This printer does not have a voltage pick change. It is offered as a
110 volt version or a 220 volt version. To convert the printer
from one model to the other, you would need to switch out both the power provide and the fuser.
At the very least it just didn't electric up. If you had actually moved the printer in the contrary instructions, it would most likely have actually gone bang and/or tripped out the entire office.

Have a look at my website - xerox phaser 8560dn

Anonymous said...

Incredible! This blog looks exactly like my old one!
It's on a completely different subject but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Outstanding choice of colors!

my homepage: www.tedxyse.com

Anonymous said...

Hello would you mind sharing which blog platform you're working with? I'm going to
start my own blog soon but I'm having a hard time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I'm
looking for something unique.
P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!


Also visit my blog post :: Air Max Pas Cher

Anonymous said...

Awesome! Its actually amazing article, I have got much clear idea regarding from this piece of
writing.

Look into my web page - http://saffronextractreview123.weebly.com/

Anonymous said...

Everything is very open with a clear explanation of the challenges.
It was really informative. Your site is useful. Thank you for sharing!


Also visit my blog Genesis Sky from XXXRated Vol. 2

Anonymous said...

It's a pity you don't have a donate button! I'd definitely donate to this excellent blog! I guess for now i'll settle for bookmarking and adding your
RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will talk
about this website with my Facebook group.
Chat soon!

Here is my web page :: sources

Anonymous said...

Your mode of describing everything in this article is really
fastidious, every one can effortlessly be aware of it, Thanks a lot.


Also visit my web site - us local business listing sites

Anonymous said...

hp laserjet p1505 printer drivers download.

Feel free to surf to my website ... xerox phaser 8560
error codes :: ::

Anonymous said...

I think this is one of the most significant information for me.
And i'm glad reading your article. But wanna remark on some general things, The site style is ideal, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

my website: best and fastest way to lose weight